当地时间5月4日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，他授权美国商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在外国制作并进入美国的电影征收100%的关税。
US President Donald Trump, in an evening post on his social media platform Truth Social, said he has instructed the Commerce Department and US Trade Representative to place a 100% tariff on films that are produced outside the United States and imported into America.
特朗普称，美国电影业正在迅速消亡，好莱坞正在被美国电影人和电影公司赴海外工作的趋势“摧毁”，他在文末用全大写字母强调“我们要让电影重新变成美国制造!”（"WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!"）。
据卫报分析，尽管特朗普这一举措目前信息含糊不清，但它具有严重的后果，可能摧毁全球很大一部分电影产业。
Trump concluded his post with an all-caps "WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!" – the chaotic roll out of previous Trump tariffs has triggered feverish speculation, as well as defiance, in the film industry in exactly how this might play out. Vague and grandstanding as the US president's messaging may be, it has serious ramifications which could wipe out large sections of the film business.
卫报：打击好莱坞“全球化制片模式”
据卫报分析，特朗普的这一政策的目标似乎并非外国电影本身，而是主要针对好莱坞长期以来的“全球化制片模式”。
几十年来，好莱坞制片厂一直利用海外的制片厂和不同国家的拍摄场地来降低成本。比如《碟中谍8：最终清算》，该片大部分是在英国拍摄的，拍摄地点包括萨里郡的Longcross制片厂和湖区，但同时也在马耳他、挪威和南非等国家和地区取景；漫威新作《雷霆特工队》虽以亚特兰大为主要拍摄地，却将关键场景设置在吉隆坡地标建筑默迪卡118大厦，配乐更远赴伦敦艾比路录音室完成。
However, Trump's target does not appear to be foreign films per se, but rather the outsourcing of production by Hollywood studios who for decades have used overseas studios and locations to lower costs as well as take advantage of interesting or unusual backdrops. To take some random recent examples: the new Tom Cruise film Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was mostly shot in the UK, at Longcross studios in Surrey and the Lake District, but also in Malta, Norway and South Africa. Marvel's new superhero blockbuster Thunderbolts was filmed in Atlanta Georgia, but a key scene took place at Merdeka 118, a skyscraper in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and its score was recorded at Abbey Road studios in London.
《碟中谍8：最终清算》海报
对于好莱坞来说，收入是重点考量的部分。虽然北美地区仍是好莱坞电影最大的单一市场，但2024年好莱坞北美区88亿美元的票房收入与全球约211亿美元的国际票房相比还有很大差距。正是为了获得大部分的国际票房，好莱坞才形成了国际化模式：在特定的地点拍摄以吸引特定的观众，对电影进行全球范围的巡回宣传，在世界不同城市举行大规模首映式等等。
Revenue plays a large role in Hollywood thinking. While North America (comprising the US and Canada) remains the biggest single market, with around $8.8 billion in box office takings in 2024, it is dwarfed by international income of around $21.1 billion. It is capturing a significant proportion of this that has geared Hollywood to its internationalist thinking, from shooting in locales and casting actors designed to appeal to specific audiences, to continent-hopping global roll-outs with large-scale premieres taking place in different cities across the world.
对电影征税面临根本性执行难题
据卫报分析，在流媒体主导的影视新时代，关税政策面临根本性执行难题。
人们首先会对征收关税的标准提出疑问：什么样的电影会被征收关税？是否会包括流媒体发行的影片？实际上到底要对什么征税？像《超能敢死队：冰封之城》这样一部美国制作、大部分在英国拍摄的电影是否会被征收进口税？等等。
与此同时，如果一部电影在流媒体上播放，消费者支付的订阅费用根本无法对应单部作品，那所谓的对“在外国制作”的电影征税又该如何实现？卫报分析指出，针对某一部电影的流媒体收入征税的想法毫无意义。
So the questions are being asked: what would make an individual movie incur tariffs? If it is released in cinemas (in which case expect a wholesale shift to streaming)? Would it include streaming releases (in which case a wholesale rebranding as "TV shows"?) And what would actually be taxed? Could an American-produced, (mostly) British-shot film such as Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire really incur import duty? Would distributors of non-American films have to pay a levy to release them in the US? In any case, if a film shows on streaming, consumers don't pay directly to watch it, but for a subscription to a platform, so the idea of targeting an individual film’s streaming revenue appears meaningless.
美国奈飞公司是一家会员订阅制的流媒体播放平台
卫报指出，英国电影协会（BFI）最近的数据显示，2024年，英国电影和高端电视剧制作的经费中，有48亿英镑（63.7亿美元）来自国际资金，占英国电影和电视剧制作总支出的86%，这些资金很可能会因为政策的影响撤离。
不仅对英国，这项关税政策也会影响到美国国内的电影产业。没有了海外税收优惠注入的情况下，美国国内电影的制作成本会上升，中等规模的项目可能会被彻底取消。
The current thinking is that Trump's most realistic option is to levy a tariff on any financial packages a film receives from a foreign government, rather than tax cinema tickets or streaming subscriptions. However, the effect of any tariff is likely to be dramatic. Recent figures from the British Film Institute (BFI) show that in 2024 £4.8 billion ($6.37 billion) of production spend on film and high-end TV in the UK came from international sources, 86% of the total spent on film and TV made in Britain. And the effect on the domestic industry in the US is forecast to be adverse, as production costs rise without the injection of overseas tax incentives, with mid-level projects potentially wiped out.
但是，这一切是否只是一种如加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森所说的 “转移视线的手段”，还是会变成更具实质性的政策？震惊中的电影行业正在等待答案。
But whether, as California Governor Gavin Newsom suggests, this is all a "distraction", or if this announcement turns into something more solid, a shocked film industry is waiting to find out.
编辑：黎霈融
来源：卫报 央视新闻
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