2014 年莫迪执政印度，并且将高铁建设视为"印度制造"的旗舰工程。因为当时中国高铁起步很快，很多国家都想学中国建高铁发展经济的模式。当时印度政府规划了一条全长508公里的高铁线路，串连了金融中心孟买和古吉拉特邦第一大城市艾哈迈达巴德，预算达到130亿美元。2015年，时任日本首相安倍晋三亲自飞赴新德里，抛出 "0.1% 低息贷款 + 技术转让 + 项目主导权"的超级大礼包，最终拿下了该项目。
2017年，印度高铁项目举行奠基仪式，之后就停止了。最近好像又重启了，印度网友问：印度网友问：印度可以在日本的无私的协助下建造自己的高铁吗？我们看看各国网友的看法。
Indeed.
确实。
At first, India planned to build the high-speed railway with the help of Japan's technology and funds. However, after a decade of折腾, only minimal progress has been made. Now the new plan is to build the high-speed railway on its own by introducing Japan's technology transfer. Even if you give a set of tools to a chimpanzee, it could do this (sarcastic about the slow progress of the plan and the stupid approach).
最初，印度计划借助日本的技术和资金来建造高铁。然而，经过长达10年的折腾，却只取得了微不足道的进展。如今新计划是通过引进日本技术转让，自行建造高铁。这事儿，哪怕是给只黑猩猩一套工具，它都能做到（讽刺计划进展缓慢且方式愚蠢）。
But can we afford it?
可我们负担得起吗？
Definitely not!!!
绝对负担不起！！！
The Indian government and those stupid people in power have finally realized how high the actual investment and subsequent maintenance costs are to supply enough electricity to a railway line to enable it to reach a speed of over 250 kilometers per hour.
印度政府以及那些掌权的蠢货终于意识到，要给一条铁路通上足够的电，使其能达到250公里以上的时速，所需的实际投资以及后续的维护成本有多高。
Just the heat transfer mechanism costs $9,000 per kilometer per day. This means that for a 300-kilometer line, the daily cost is $270,000, and for a year, it's $100 million (about 8.7 billion Indian rupees).
仅仅是热传递机制，每天每公里就要花费9000美元。这意味着，一条300公里的线路，每天的花费就是27万美元，一年下来就是1亿美元（约合87亿印度卢比）。
Only when the mileage of the high-speed railway line reaches at least 12,000 kilometers can the cost of the heat transfer mechanism be reduced to less than $1,000 per kilometer per day.
只有当高铁线路里程达到至少1.2万公里时，热传递机制的成本才能降至每天每公里不到1000美元。
China has a high-speed railway network of 45,000 kilometers and has made huge profits from freight transportation. However, even so, its high-speed railways still have an average annual loss of 8.7%.
中国拥有4.5万公里的高铁线路，并且从货运中获取了巨额利润，但即便如此，其高铁每年仍平均亏损8.7%。
Given India's serious corruption problem and low quality standards, our losses are likely to be much higher.
鉴于印度严重的腐败问题以及较低的质量标准，我们的亏损可能会高得多。
China is wealthy, while India is short of money.
中国财力雄厚，而印度却囊中羞涩。
So the question is - how can we make up for the losses of the high-speed railway, especially in terms of maintenance?
所以问题来了——我们该如何弥补高铁尤其是维护方面的亏损呢？
The worthless "Vande Bharat" train is the best example. On most routes, the average speed of this train is only 113 - 115 kilometers per hour, and it was completely unnecessary to build it. With a small portion of that money, other fast trains like the "Shatabdi" could have been renovated and the same toilets and other facilities could have been installed. The fact that only less than 7 kilometers of the line has achieved stable electrification is clear evidence.
毫无价值的“梵德巴拉特”列车就是最好的例子。在大多数线路上，该列车平均时速仅为113 - 115公里，完全没有必要建造。用这笔资金的一小部分，本可以用于翻新像“萨塔布迪”这样的其他快速列车，并安装同样的厕所和其他设备。目前仅有不到7公里的线路实现了稳定电气化，这就是明证。
India has invested billions of rupees just to satisfy the vanity of a bearded elder, allowing him to keep cutting the ribbon like a three-year-old child!
印度投入了数十亿卢比，仅仅是为了满足某位留着胡须的长者的虚荣心，让他能像个三岁小孩一样不停地剪彩！
As I have been saying since 2020, judging from all the data, building a high-speed railway is simply crazy. It would be better to spend that money on the full research and development of ramjet engines, scramjet engines, and active electronically scanned array radar systems, so that we don't have to grovel in front of the Americans and the Russians just for a little advanced technology.
正如我从2020年起就一直说的，从各项数据来看，建造高铁简直是疯狂之举。还不如把这笔钱花在冲压喷气发动机、超燃冲压发动机以及有源电子扫描阵列雷达系统的充分研发上，这样我们就不必仅仅为了一点先进技术，就在美国人和俄罗斯人面前卑躬屈膝了。
Oh, that's right. India will surely be able to build a high-speed railway. Since Japan is providing technology and assistance, there's actually not much that really needs to be built independently. It's basically just a matter of copying and imitating. India just needs to solve its own possible logistics and operation problems. However, the key lies in aspects such as the ecosystem, economic factors, and political influence.
哦，没错。印度肯定能建成高铁。既然有日本提供技术和援助，其实没什么真正需要自主建设的，基本就是照搬照抄的事儿。印度只需解决自身可能存在的物流和运营问题就行。然而，问题的关键在于生态系统、经济因素以及政治影响等方面。
You see, in those developed countries or countries that already have high-speed railways, the high-speed railway is part of their ecosystem. But in India, the high-speed railway will seem out of place. Things that are mavericks are often extremely difficult to control. Let me give an inappropriate example: Imagine a beautiful woman wearing a miniskirt walking alone on an empty street in an area with poor public security at 11 p.m., such as in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, or Haryana. It's very likely that she won't be safe. She's highly likely to be molested, robbed of her belongings, or even killed.
你看，在那些发达国家或者已拥有高铁的国家，高铁是其生态系统的一部分。但在印度，高铁却会显得格格不入。特立独行的事物往往极难把控。我举个不太恰当的例子：想象一下，一位身着超短裙的美丽女子，晚上11点独自走在某个治安不佳地区的空荡荡街道上，比如比哈尔邦、北方邦或者哈里亚纳邦，很可能她就无法安然无恙了。她极有可能遭遇非礼、财物被抢，甚至被杀害。
People won't appreciate her beauty because she's not compatible with the local ecosystem, and the locals won't think about improving the ecosystem they're in. But if the same woman is in a lively and crowded place in Mumbai, with ten other women dressed similarly around her, she'll be safe there because she fits into that ecosystem.
人们不会欣赏她的美丽，因为她与当地生态系统不相容，而当地人也不会想着去改善自身所处的生态环境。但同样是这位女子，在孟买某个热闹拥挤的地方，周围还有十位穿着类似的女子，她在那儿就会很安全，因为她融入了那个生态系统。
In an environment where most trains have a speed of only 50 - 80 kilometers per hour, it's impossible to be compatible with a high-speed railway. Think about the ecosystems of Japan, the UK, the US, and even China. The high-speed railway fits in well in these places. In those places, people don't spit on the train or in the station. Just like the woman mentioned before, in an incompatible environment, her goodness can't be preserved.
在一个大多数列车时速仅为50 - 80公里的环境里，是无法兼容高铁的。想想日本、英国、美国，甚至中国的生态系统，高铁在这些地方都能很好地融入。在那些地方，人们不会在车厢内或车站随地吐痰。就像前面说的那位女子，在不匹配的环境中，她的美好就难以保全。
Next is the economic aspect. Can a single high-speed railway line recoup the investment in infrastructure construction and cover the operation and maintenance costs? Feasibility and viability (here it can be understood as commercial profitability) are two different things.
接下来是经济层面的问题。单条高铁线路能否收回建设基础设施的投资，以及覆盖运营和维护成本呢？可行性和 viability（此处可理解为商业上的可盈利性）是两码事。
This project may not be commercially profitable. A high-speed railway requires a completely different transportation system from the existing railway network, similar to the subway system. It can't run on India's existing railway network. So, expanding the high-speed railway network will involve huge costs, including large-scale infrastructure construction, land acquisition, capital investment, and so on.
这个项目可能在商业上并不具有可盈利性。高铁需要一套完全不同于现有铁路网络的运输系统，类似于地铁系统。它无法在印度现有的铁路网上运行。所以，拓展高铁网络将涉及巨额成本，包括大规模的基础设施建设、土地征用、资金投入等等。
India can't even afford the funds needed to improve railway safety at present, and millions of people take the train every day. Therefore, the high-speed railway should not be our top priority. Even if such infrastructure is built, with India's poor per capita income level, how many people can afford to take the high-speed railway? Japan's per capita GDP in 2024 is expected to be between $32,859 and $43,005, which is almost 15 times that of India. It can be seen that from an economic perspective, this is not realistic.
印度目前连提升铁路安全所需的资金都拿不出来，而每天却有数百万人乘坐火车出行。因此，高铁不应成为我们的优先事项。即便建成了这样的基础设施，以印度可怜的人均收入水平，又有多少人能坐得起高铁呢？2024年日本的人均国内生产总值预计在32859美元至43005美元之间，几乎是印度的15倍。由此可见，从经济角度看，这并不现实。
Last but not least, there are the political influence and significance. Building a high-speed railway is just a gimmick. It's not a real need for India, and it doesn't help the country or the economy. It may just satisfy the vanity of some people.
最后但同样重要的是政治影响和意义。建设高铁不过是个噱头，它并非印度的实际需求，对国家和经济也没有帮助，可能只是满足了某些人的虚荣心。
Moreover, it may not necessarily play a role in electoral politics. 90% of people can't afford to take the high-speed railway, and they have no opportunity or need to take it either. Politicians are not sure about the results of doing this, so the progress is very slow. That money could have been spent on other places where the returns might be higher. However, don't lose heart. One day, the high-speed railway will become a reality in India. But as for whether it's economically feasible, I'm not sure.
而且，它在选举政治中也未必能发挥作用。90%的人坐不起高铁，也没有机会和需求去乘坐。从政者对这样做的结果心里没底，所以推进得很慢。那笔钱本可以花在其他回报可能更高的地方。不过，也别灰心。总有一天，高铁会在印度成为现实。但至于经济上是否可行，我就不确定了。
Yes, of course, but based on the following preconditions:
是的，当然，但基于以下前提条件：
Japan sincerely hopes to help India build a high-speed railway, even if it is a money-losing business. This means that Japan should not only consider economic benefits but also take into account its geopolitical interests. Just as what China has done for Indonesia, this is also the reason why Indonesia has its first high-speed railway.
日本真心希望帮助印度建设高铁，即便这是一项亏本生意。这意味着，日本不应仅仅考量经济收益，还需考虑其地缘政治利益。就如同中国为印度尼西亚所做的那样，这也是印度尼西亚得以拥有首条高铁的原因。
India should abandon the idea of enjoying a free lunch without paying any price. You get what you pay for, which is the basic business logic.
印度应摒弃不付出任何代价就能享受免费午餐的想法。一分钱一分货，这是基本的商业逻辑。
India should solve many problems, such as breaking down the barriers between the states and negotiating with landowners to ensure that they do not ask for an exorbitant price.
印度应解决诸多问题，比如打破各邦之间的界限，与土地所有者进行协商，确保他们不会漫天要价。
Even if India can solve complex issues such as land acquisition and financing, it still faces many challenges.
即便印度能够解决土地征收和融资等复杂问题，它仍面临诸多挑战。
For example, the transportation of heavy machinery is a fundamental issue, and this is also my area of expertise. Most of the roads in India are not suitable for transporting large equipment, and the traffic situation is extremely complex, requiring coordination, communication, and cooperation among many departments. Given India's current work efficiency, it may take months or even years for heavy equipment to reach a construction site.
例如，重型机械运输便是一个基础性问题，这也是我所擅长的领域。印度大多数道路并不适合运输大型设备，而且交通状况极为复杂，需要众多部门之间进行协调、沟通与合作。以印度目前的工作效率，重型设备抵达建筑工地可能需要数月甚至数年时间。
In addition, despite India's large population, it is still very difficult to find enough skilled workers.
此外，尽管印度人口众多，但要找到足够的技术工人仍然困难重重。
There are still many other problems to be solved. To be honest, I am pessimistic about the cooperation between India and Japan. Because both sides have their own selfish motives and are calculating their own interests. They have no spirit of cooperation and do not know how to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.
还有许多其他问题也有待解决。说实话，我对印度和日本之间的合作持悲观态度。因为双方都各有私心，打着自己的小算盘，毫无合作精神，也不懂得如何实现互利共赢。
