编者按：近日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任王文接受丹麦重要媒体 （Politiken）专访时指出，西方时代在终结，欧洲领导人不应再对美国抱有任何幻想。美国正显现新法西斯主义倾向，而忽视乌克兰诉求的所谓“和平”实为致命危险。2025年2月27日，丹麦《政治报》报端、网端刊发专访全文。现将专访中英版发布如下：
▲本文2月27日刊发在丹麦《政治报》
→丹麦《政治报》：唐纳德·特朗普的连任和他作为总统的第一次行动震惊了许多欧洲人。这是国际历史上具有划时代意义的时刻吗？如果是，以何种方式？
王文：从中国人的视角看，我并不认为特朗普连任是一个具有划时代意义的国际历史时刻。中国人民很平静地看待特朗普的当选，也有信心应对好特朗普的任何政策冲击。从这个角度看，中国人只是把他视为许多美国总统中的一个。
但对于欧洲而言，甚至对于整个西方世界而言，特朗普具有划时代意义的时刻，就是美国的“退出”以及北大西洋联盟体系的瓦解。这将对欧洲产生巨大的冲击，意味着西方的终结以及欧洲被边缘化。
→丹麦《政治报》：唐纳德·特朗普宣布，他将直接与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京就乌克兰问题谈判达成和平协议，但目前尚不清楚乌克兰、欧洲或中国是否会参与其中。你对正在发生的事情有什么评价？
王文：俄美直接谈判，是快速结束这场冲突必不可少的途径。从目前看，把乌克兰、欧洲的利益都抛在边上，甚至被美国人出卖，一定会埋下冲突重新复燃的后果，不可能完全地解决冲突。作为中国学者，我一直主张，既要考虑俄罗斯的安全关切，也要考虑乌克兰的实际利益，还不能忘记欧洲关切的利益与战略诉求。从这个角度看，我主张俄罗斯、乌克兰、欧洲、美国和中国展开“五方谈判”。
→丹麦《政治报》：特朗普还威胁要接管丹麦领土格陵兰岛和巴拿马运河。世界其他国家应该如何应对这些威胁？
王文：威胁要拿下格陵兰岛与巴拿马运河，是美国新扩张主义甚至新法西斯主义的表现。这是非常值得全世界去警惕与应对的。我们必须尊重丹麦和巴拿马的主权完整，更要积极应对美国带来的安全冲击与威胁，在这方面，世界应该团结起来。
→丹麦《政治报》：毛泽东说“枪杆子里出政权”，而修昔底德则写道“强者行其所能为，弱者忍其所必受”。以联合国为核心的国际国家秩序试图限制使用军事力量征服其他国家并实现其政治目标的能力。随着特朗普公开使用经济和军事胁迫，国际秩序失败了吗？我们是否再次生活在“强者”的世界？
王文：特朗普正在对自二战结束以来的国际秩序造成有史以来最大的破坏。但是特朗普任期只有4年，如果下一届美国总统能够纠正特朗普的错误，那么国际秩序的传统还有延续的可能性。如果未来12年，会有像特朗普这样的总统继续执政美国，那么，无疑，二战后的国际秩序将会彻底地终结。
对于中国人来看，这种终结具有不确定性，但也未必是坏事。美国对中国而言，未来不是变强了，而是变弱了。美国不可能再继续主导世界，这对世界多数国家来说，可能都是好事。由此看，我不认同你问“再次生活在强者世界”的问题。因为美国将会变得更弱，而不是更强。
→丹麦《政治报》：像特朗普、马尔科·鲁比奥、埃尔布里奇·科尔比这样的人长期以来一直将中国视为美国在21世纪的主要对手，认为美国必须尽其所能遏制中国。您预计未来四年美中关系将如何发展或演变？
王文：在我看来，鲁比奥的遏制中国言论的确反映了一些美国政客的普遍焦虑。美国习惯于现实主义霸权兴衰的逻辑来观察世界，自然就会得出要遏制中国的结论。事实上，美国需要强大的中国，世界也需要强大的中国，人类未来发展更需要强大的中国。美国民众能够享受相对廉价的商品，要依赖中国制造。美国大公司想要获取丰厚的利益，要依赖中国市场。美国在二战后的国际秩序能够延续，需要依赖中国支持。作为14亿人口的大国，很难想象如果还是像40多年前那么穷的话，世界将会多么糟糕。
未来四年，我们能感受到美国遏制的影响，但中国有实力抵御美国的遏制。四年后，中国一定会变得更强。
→丹麦《政治报》：中国对俄罗斯的持续支持、被欧盟称之为“产能过剩”的出口，以及对“台湾”和菲律宾的军事威胁，在欧洲被视为极不稳定，并对欧中关系产生负面影响。你认为中国在这些争端中是否会改变路线，以改善与欧洲的关系？
王文：在特朗普2.0的冲击下，中国与欧洲的关系在未来四年会有所改善。中国不会改变对欧洲一贯的政策，那就是相互尊重、合作共赢。至于其他你提到的点，中国更不会改变。所谓中国对俄罗斯的支持指控，是立不住的，中国与乌克兰也保持着年均30%以上增长的贸易往来，比中俄贸易增长更高，不能把正常的中俄贸易视为所谓的“中国支持俄罗斯”。所谓的“过剩产能”指控，也是错误的，中国对欧贸易是基于市场化的规则。台湾是中国的一部分，何谈威胁？中国与菲律宾的关系，涉及中国的主权，中国也不会让步。
→丹麦《政治报》：无论中国采取何种行动，鉴于欧洲与美国的关系不断恶化，你认为欧洲会寻求改善与中国的关系吗？
王文：欧洲一些政治家头脑非常糊涂。他们常常把中国视为竞争对手，甚至是敌人。这种战略定位是非常错误的。中国从来不把欧洲视为对手，更不会视为敌人。如果欧洲政治家们醒悟过来，采取一种战略清醒的态度，我相信，中国愿意继续与欧洲一起采取务实合作的态度，推动双边关系朝着更好的方向发展。
→丹麦《政治报》：你是否和一些人一样担心，在这十年里，有可能直接或间接地在美国和中国之间爆发新的世界大战？
王文：尽管我认为，未来十年，中美之间的竞争会变得更加激烈，但我不认为，这种竞争会导致新的世界大战。理由有三：一是如果中美两国爆发战争，那将意味着人类的毁灭；二是中美两国社会是理性的，不会让极端的战争发生；三是两国政策决策层会有足够的战略智慧，去管控因为竞争而出现的极端危机。
→丹麦《政治报》：你对丹麦和欧洲政治领导人的主要政策建议是什么？他们正试图弄清楚如何在一个似乎由唐纳德·特朗普主导的新世界中导航？
王文：在中国眼里，特朗普的战略是非常清晰的，即抛掉尽可能多的包袱与责任，尽可能多地提升本国的实力（包括版图、财税等），以交易的逻辑获得世界各国尽可能多的利益。对于欧洲政治领导人而言，应该看透特朗普战略的本质，不要心存幻想。投降是没有出路的。要敢于善于对美国展开斗争，积极捍卫本国的利益，才是丹麦与欧洲政治领导人的唯一选择。
→丹麦《政治报》：你对特朗普政府试图在俄罗斯和乌克兰之间促成和平协议的印象如何。这目前在欧洲和乌克兰引起了严重关切？
王文：我不认为，没有乌克兰与欧洲参与的和平协议，会持续地存在下去。俄罗斯的利益要尊重，欧洲和乌克兰的利益也要尊重。
→丹麦《政治报》：美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥现在谈到了新的美俄地缘政治和经济伙伴关系。一些保守党人炫耀“尼克松转向中国”的想法，试图在俄罗斯和中国之间制造分裂。你对此有何反应？
王文：我们对中俄关系充满信心。过去25年，中俄关系经历了考验。普京总统本人也会知晓，谁才是在危难中俄罗斯真正靠得住的朋友。无论是特朗普，还是鲁比奥，他们都不可能把俄罗斯变成遏制中国的新工具。但另一方面，俄美关系缓和，是中国愿意看到的。这样会让中俄贸易变得正当化，不再受到美国制裁的影响。
文章英文版
Politiken:The reelection of Donald Trump and his first actions as president has shocked many Europeans. Is this an era-defining moment in international history, and if so, in what ways?
Wang Wen:From the perspective of the Chinese people, I don't think Trump's re-election is an era-defining international historical moment. The Chinese people view Trump's election calmly and are confident to cope with any policy impact of Trump. From this perspective, the Chinese only regard him as one of many American presidents.
But for Europe, and even for the entire Western world, Trump's era-defining moment was the "withdrawal" of the United States and the collapse of the North Atlantic alliance system. This will have a huge impact on Europe, meaning the end of the West and the marginalization of Europe.
Politiken:Donald Trump has declared that he will negotiate a peace deal over Ukraine directly with Russian president, Vladimir Putin, but it is unclear whether Ukraine, Europe or China will be involved. What is your assessment of what is going on?
Wang Wen:Direct negotiations between Russia and the United States are an essential way to quickly end this conflict. At present, if the interests of Ukraine and Europe are left aside, or even betrayed by the Americans, the consequences of the resurgence of the conflict will surely be re-buried, and it is impossible to completely resolve the conflict.
As a Chinese scholar, I have always advocated that we should consider both Russia's security concerns and Ukraine's actual interests, while not forgetting the interests and strategic demands of Europe. From this perspective, I advocate for a "five-party negotiation" between Russia, Ukraine, Europe, the United States, and China.
Politiken:Trump is also threatening to take over Greenland, which is Danish territory, as well as Greenland and the Panama canal. How should the rest of the world react to these threats?
Wang Wen:Threatening to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal is a manifestation of American neo-expansionism and even neo-fascism. This is something that the whole world should be vigilant about and respond to. We must respect the sovereignty and integrity of Denmark and Panama, and actively respond to the security shocks and threats brought by the United States. In this regard, the world should unite.
Politiken:Mao Zedong once said that 'political power grows out of the barrel of a gun', while Thucydides wrote that 'the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must'. The international order of states, with the UN at its core, was an attempt to limit the ability to use military power to subdue other states and achieve ones political goals. With Trump openly using economic and military coercion, has the international order failed? Are we once again living in the world of 'the strong'?
Wang Wen:Trump is causing the greatest damage to the international order since the end of World War II in history. But Trump only has four years, and if the next US president can correct Trump's mistakes, there is still a possibility for the tradition of international order to continue. If a president like Trump continues to govern the United States in the next 12 years, undoubtedly, the post-World War II international order will come to a complete end.
For the Chinese, this end is uncertain, but it is not necessarily a bad thing. For China, the future of the United States is not 'strong', but it has become weaker. The United States cannot continue to dominate the world, which may be a good thing for most countries in the world. From this perspective, I do not agree with your question of 'living in the world of the strong again'. Because the United States will become weaker, not stronger.
Politiken:Leading Trump-people, like Marco Rubio and Elbridge Colby, have long seen China as the US' main adversary in the 21st century, arguing that the US must do almost everything in its power to contain China. How do you expect US-China relations to evolve, or devolve, in the coming four years?
Wang Wen:In my opinion, Rubio's containment of Chinese rhetoric does reflect the widespread anxiety of some American politicians. The United States is accustomed to observing the world through the logic of the rise and fall of realism hegemony, and naturally comes to the conclusion of containing China.
In fact, the United States needs a strong China, the world also needs a strong China, and the future development of mankind needs a strong China even more. The American people can enjoy relatively cheap goods and rely on Chinese manufacturing. Large American companies can benefit greatly and rely on the Chinese market. The United States relies on China's support for the continuation of the international order after World War II. As a country with a population of 1.4 billion, it is hard to imagine how bad the world would be if it were still as poor as it was over 40 years ago.
In the next four years, we will feel the impact of US containment, but China has the strength to resist US containment. In four years, China will definitely become stronger.
Politiken:China's continued support to Russia,'overcapacity exports to the EU, as well as its military threats against Taiwan and the Philippines, are seen in Europe as immensely destabilizing and negatively impacting Europe-China relations.Do you see China changing course in any of these disputes, in order to improve relations with Europe?
Wang Wen:Under the impact of Trump 2.0, the relationship between China and Europe will improve in the next four years. China will not change its consistent policy towards Europe, which is mutual respect and win-win cooperation.
As for the other points you mentioned, China will not change. The accusation of China's support for Russia is unfounded, as China and Ukraine maintain an average annual growth rate of over 30% in trade in the past 3 years, which is higher than the growth rate of trade between China and Russia. Normal trade between China and Russia cannot be seen as so-called 'China supporting Russia'. The accusation of 'overcapacity' is also incorrect, as China's trade with Europe is based on market-oriented rules. Taiwan is a part of China. The relationship between China and the Philippines also involves China's sovereignty, and China will not compromise.
Politiken:Regardless of China's actions, do you think Europe will seek to improve relations with China, giving its deteriorating relations with the US?
Wang Wen:Some European politicians have very confused minds. They often see China as a competitor, even an enemy. This strategic positioning is very wrong. China never sees Europe as a rival, let alone an enemy. If European politicians wake up and adopt a strategic and sober attitude, I believe China is willing to continue to adopt a pragmatic and cooperative attitude with Europe, and promote the development of bilateral relations in a better direction.
Politiken:Do you worry, as some do, that we risk a new world war in this decade, directly or indirectly between the US and China?
Wang Wen:Although I believe that competition between China and the United States will become more intense in the next decade, I do not think that this competition will lead to a new world war. There are three reasons: firstly, if a war breaks out between China and the United States, it will mean the destruction of humanity. Secondly, the societies of China and the United States are rational and will not allow extreme wars to occur; Thirdly, the policy decision-makers of both countries will have sufficient strategic wisdom to manage extreme crises arising from competition.
Politiken:What is your main policy advice for Danish and European political leaders, who are trying to figure out how to navigate in a new world seemingly dominated by Donald Trump?
Wang Wen:In the eyes of China, Trump's strategy is very clear which is to discard as many burdens and responsibilities as possible, enhance the country's strength as much as possible (including territory, finance and taxation, etc.), and obtain as many benefits as possible from countries around the world through the logic of transactions. For European political leaders, they should see through the essence of Trump's strategy and not harbor illusions. Surrender has no way out. The only choice for Danish and European political leaders is to dare to be good at fighting against the United States and actively defend their own interests.
Politiken:What is your impression of the Trump-administration's attempts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which is causing serious concern in Europe and Ukraine right now?
Wang Wen:I don't think a peace agreement without Ukraine and Europe's participation will continue to exist. Russia's interests should be respected, as should the interests of Europe and Ukraine.
Politiken:Secretary of State Marco Rubio now talks about a new US-Russia partnership geopolitically and economically. Some Conservatives are flaunting the idea of a "Reverse Nixon goes to China" to try and create a split between Russia and China. What is your reaction to that?
Wang Wen:We have full confidence in the China-Russia relationship. Over the past 25 years, China-Russia relations have undergone tests. President Putin himself will also know who is Russia's truly reliable friend in times of crisis. Neither Trump nor Rubio can turn Russia into a new tool to contain China. On the other hand, the easing of Russia-US relations is something China is willing to see. This will legitimize Sino-Russian trade and no longer be affected by US sanctions.
重要！重要！重要！
微信改版打乱发布时间
常有读者朋友错过文章更新
大家可以将“人大重阳”设为星标
点击上方的公众号卡片
再点右上角三个点
就能看到“设为星标”
保持联系，一起前行
// 人大重阳
RDCY
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
别忘了“点赞”+“在看”
