澳大利亚从未学会平衡的艺术，总是在打别人的仗

澳大利亚广播公司（ABC）近期推出有关美英澳三边安全伙伴关系（AUKUS）的系列播客专访，聚焦地缘政治、军事、核安全、经济与就业等多个领域。节目第三期聚焦“AUKUS与中国”主题，邀请澳大利亚海军参谋长马克·哈蒙德（Mark Hammond）、澳大利亚国防部副部长休·杰弗里（Hugh Jeffrey）、清华大学战略与安全研究中心研究员周波，对AUKUS作出评论。哈蒙德和杰弗里认为，澳大利亚的国家安全高度依赖海上航行自由，澳大利亚的经济贸易离不开全球互联互通。他们表示，对区域航行自由的干扰可能会对澳大利亚经济产生深远影响，而AUKUS能够让澳大利亚更有效地形成威慑，应对潜在威胁，或至少能确保潜在对手“三思而行”。对于一些批评者认为AUKUS可能“无关紧要”的观点，两人表示，只有通过展现自卫决心，澳大利亚才能在真正的冲突爆发时获得盟友的保护。AUKUS还将帮助澳大利亚提升自主制造核潜艇的能力，减少对外部支持的依赖。周波对上述评论进行了批驳。以下为访谈部分实录，观察者网和北京对话受权编译：

ABC：周波大校(退役)不仅是中国资深的安全分析家之一，而且对澳大利亚十分了解。早在1999年，他曾在澳大利亚皇家军事学院访学3个月。我很想知道，中国是如何看待AUKUS的？

周波：我们不喜欢AUKUS。近年来，印太地区出现了两个重要动向：一个是四边安全对话（Quad），另一个是AUKUS。我的看法很简单：Quad的出现是因为中国，而AUKUS的出现则是针对中国。

ABC：那么，在您和中国政策制定者的心目中，AUKUS的主要针对目标就是中国，是吗？

周波：毫无疑问，AUKUS就是针对中国的。这在任何人看来都是毋庸置疑的。我们从一开始就不喜欢它，认为它不应继续发展。但是，即使它继续发展，也不会产生太大影响，因为它不会改变现有规则。

ABC：为什么？

周波：因为澳大利亚大概要花20年的时间才能拥有8艘核潜艇。即使20年后全部建成，与中国的军事发展相比，到那个时候中国人民解放军海军会是什么水平？中国海军已经是世界上最大的海军了。

ABC：你的回答恰恰反映了AUKUS的成立原因。中国军事快速发展，海军规模不断壮大，成为世界上最大的海军。对此，你能理解像澳大利亚这样的国家为何会觉得在面对这种重大变局时不能毫无准备吗？

周波：你的话难以自圆其说。我可以告诉你，在过去的40年里，中国的军费开支一直占GDP的1.5%左右，有时甚至更低，从未超过2%。虽然中国的经济规模很大，因此1.5%的开支可能看起来不小，但中国希望以稳定且可持续的方式发展军队。我们并未与任何国家进行军备竞赛，中国的发展是基于自身节奏和逻辑的。

ABC：AUKUS是否在你参与的会议中被讨论过？

周波：AUKUS在中国经常被提及和讨论，这并不是秘密，所有人都知道。我的看法是，AUKUS是美国让盟国为其军费分担成本的一种努力。很明显，美国现在更加依赖盟友，这是拜登政府的外交核心理念之一。特朗普政府的口号是“美国优先”，但对拜登来说，可能是“盟友优先”。

拜登政府为什么如此重视盟友？因为拜登政府知道，美国也知道，自身已无法单独维持全球存在，需要盟友的支持。

ABC：你是否暗指澳大利亚被视为美国的延伸？

周波：这可能是另一种解读。无论如何，美国确实需要澳大利亚，因为美国知道自身力量不足。

ABC：（AUKUS支持者）认为，这些核潜艇将起到远程威慑作用，可能会让正在扩军的国家“三思而行”，并在未来改变其战略思维。你能理解这其中的逻辑吗？

周波：完全不能理解。澳大利亚真的有人相信中国会突然以任何理由攻击其本土吗？显然不会。澳大利亚唯一可能卷入冲突的地方是台湾海峡或南海。这意味着冲突将发生在离中国更近的地方，在中国家门口，而不是相反。所以，如果我们要谈论威慑，那是在威慑什么？针对谁？这又回到了刚才的问题：美国想联合澳大利亚，是因为自身力量不足，需要盟友帮助。

坦率地说，从历史上看，除了二战期间以外，澳大利亚几乎总是在帮别人打仗。无论是一战中的加里波利（注：土耳其一地名），还是越南、阿富汗或伊拉克，都是如此。所以我不认为澳大利亚学会了平衡的艺术。

ABC：那么，澳大利亚人最终应该得出什么结论？你的意思是，我们应该认为中国是一个本质和平的国家吗？

周波：我们仍未完成国家统一，因此在别无选择的情况下，我们可能不得不通过武力解决统一问题，但这并不意味着一定会使用武力。中国人民是热爱和平的。我们不喜欢战争。想想美国发动了多少次战争。

自1979年以来，中国从未在境外杀害过一个外国人，除了中印边境的一次冲突，造成4名中国士兵和20名印度士兵死亡。但这是一场涉及主权问题的边境冲突。你找不到任何一个例子可以说明中国如何威胁任何国家。中国何时威胁过澳大利亚？何时干涉过南海的航行自由？你无法举出这样的例子。

以下为采访原文：

ABC: Senior Colonel Zhou Bo is not only one of the best-informed security analysts in China, but he knows Australia well, having spent 3 months at Duntroon, the Australian Army's officer training college, back in 1999. I was keen to know, what is the view inside China about AUKUS?

Zhou Bo: I don’t believe we like AUKUS, because in recent years there are two developments in the Indo-Pacific: one is QUAD, another is AUKUS. The difference between the two, in my opinion, is very simple. Quad is because of China, and AUKUS is against China.

ABC: So, there is no doubt in your mind and in the minds of decision makers in China that it sees itself as the principal Target of AUKUS, does it?

Zhou Bo: Yeah, AUKUS is certainly against China, there is no doubt for anybody here in China, we don't like it from the very beginning, and we believe it should not continue to grow, but even if it grows, it won't matter that much, because it won't be a game-changer.

ABC: Why not?

Zhou Bo: Because it would take Australia probably about two decades to have eight nuclear submarines, so even if you have 8 of them all together in 20 years, compared with China's military development, what standard would the PLA navy have become by that time？Chinese navy is already is the largest in the world.

ABC: Your very answer is the reason why this whole development is underway. Your rapid military buildup, the size of your growing Navy, it’ll become the biggest in the world, can you understand why a country like Australia would think, well we can't be completely exposed in the light of these big changes?

Zhou Bo: That is not something justifiable， f I just tell you that over the last four decades， China's military expenditure is just around 1.5% of GDP, it is sometimes less than that, but it is never over 2% of GDP. Yes, China's economy is big, so therefore 1.5% could be big, but China wants to develop its military in a sustainable way, in a steady manner, so we are not entering into arms race with anyone, I think China is developing the military according to his own tempo and logic.

ABC: I wonder whether AUKUS is ever mentioned at some of the meetings you attended, is AUKUS on the table or not?

Zhou Bo: AUKUS is frequently mentioned and discussed in China, so it is not a secret, everyone knows about it. I believe AUKUS is basically an American effort to let these allies to subsidise its military, because clearly the US now relies more on its allies, and this is almost the benchmark of the Biden administration. Now, Trump’s slogan is America first, but maybe for Biden, it’s allies first. Then, why would Biden administration give unprecedented importance to allies? Because it knows and America knows the United States can no longer afford a global presence, it needs allies.

ABC: You definitely say that Australia is seen as an extension of the United States.

Zhou Bo: That could be another interpretation another way, but basically， you're needed because the United States knows that its own strengths would not be enough.

ABC: We are told that the nuclear subs we're talking about will act as a deterrent at a distance, and that in fact it might give pause to a nation that is rearming, as you talk about, and to change its strategic thinking in the future. Can you see the logic to that?

Zhou Bo: Not at all. Does anybody in Australia believe that all of a sudden China is going to launch attack against Australia for any reasons? No, the only possible scenario for a conflict involving Australia is in Taiwan Strait or in the South China Sea. That means you would have a conflict closer to our doorstep, it’s not the other way around. So if you are talking deterrence, deterrence for what, against what? So again this is the same situation: the United States wants to gang up with you, because they want you to help itself, whose strength is not enough. Historically speaking, let me be frank, Australia always fight other people's wars, except during the second World War; apart from that, you're always fighting other people's wars, be it in Gallipoli, be it in Vietnam, be it in Afghanistan or Iraq. So, I don't believe Australia has ever learnt the art of the balancing.

ABC: I wonder what a final message is to Australians then. Do we see China as inherently a peaceful country, is that what you're saying to us?

Zhou Bo: Well, you see, we are still a country divided, so as a last resort, we may have to use force to resolve this issue for reunification, but it is not certain that we would definitely use force. You would find that Chinese are very much peaceful. China doesn’t like wars. Just think how many wars did United States launch. Ever since 1979, China has not killed a single foreigner elsewhere, apart from China-India border, where we have a deadly clash, resulting in the death of four Chinese soldiers and 20 Indian soldiers, but that is about border clash, about sovereignty. You can't just give me an example of how China has threatened anyone, and has China ever threaten Australia?, And how has China ever interfere with freedom of navigation in the South China Sea? You just can't give me such an example.